How can a Muslim differentiate between a tribulation that is a punishment for sins and one that is a test to elevate one's ranks?

Calamities and trials primarily stem from two main reasons: First: Sins and transgressions committed by a person, for which Allah afflicts them with an immediate punishment, as stated by the Almighty: (And whatever of misfortune befalls you, it is because of what your hands have earned) and (And whatever calamity befalls you, it is because of what your hands have earned, and He pardons much). Second: Allah's will to elevate the ranks of the patient believer, so He afflicts them to attain the reward of the patient and be counted among the successful, as narrated in the Hadith: (Indeed, when a servant has a status decreed for him by Allah which he cannot reach by his deeds, Allah afflicts him in his body, or in his wealth, or in his child). Both reasons can coincide, as a calamity can raise ranks and expiate sins. Every trial is a good and a reward if the servant shows patience and seeks Allah's reward, and it is evil and harm if they despair and show discontent. Most importantly, the servant should always have a good opinion of their Lord and accuse themselves of shortcomings.